Tycho Everett: New page: = Triassic Park and Bestiary = {| cellpadding="3" cellspacing="0" border="1" align="center" style="text-align:center" |- style="background-color:#EFEFEF" ! (run ID#) !! catoblepas !!...

2008-07-10T20:39:09Z

New page: = Triassic Park and Bestiary = {| cellpadding="3" cellspacing="0" border="1" align="center" style="text-align:center" |- style="background-color:#EFEFEF" ! (run ID#) !! catoblepas !!...

New page

= Triassic Park and Bestiary =

{| cellpadding="3" cellspacing="0" border="1" align="center" style="text-align:center"
|- style="background-color:#EFEFEF"
! (run ID#) !! [[catoblepas]] !! [[flock of harpies|flock]] !! [[coelophysis|coelo]]
! [[dimetrodon]] !! [[upgraded no-frills lizard|upgraded]] !! [[peteinosaurus|pete]]
! [[gryphon]] !! [[femticore]] !! [[estemmenosuchus|estem]]
! [[Who Are You Calling Vile?|Who You?]]
|-
| 1. (400) || 35 || 49 || 34 || 39 || 43 || 41 || 39 || 41 || 45 || 34
|}
 

[[upgraded no-frills lizard]] (150 XP base)
{| cellpadding="3" cellspacing="0" border="1" align="center" style="text-align:center"
|- style="background-color:#EFEFEF"
! (run ID#) !! nothing !! [[lizard tail]] !! [[reptile tile]] !! both drops
|-
| 1. || 13 || 09 || 05 || 01
|}
 

[[coelophysis]] (155 XP base)
{| cellpadding="3" cellspacing="0" border="1" align="center" style="text-align:center"
|- style="background-color:#EFEFEF"
! (run ID#) !! nothing !! [[red tooth]] !! [[lizard tail]] !! both drops
|-
| 1. || 11 || 04 || 03 || 00
|}
 

[[peteinosaurus]] (160 XP base)
{| cellpadding="3" cellspacing="0" border="1" align="center" style="text-align:center"
|- style="background-color:#EFEFEF"
! (run ID#) !! nothing !! [[red claw]] !! [[taut sinew]] !! both drops
|-
| 1. || 19 || 06 || 01 || 02
|}
 

[[estemmenosuchus]] (165 XP base)
{| cellpadding="3" cellspacing="0" border="1" align="center" style="text-align:center"
|- style="background-color:#EFEFEF"
! (run ID#) !! nothing !! [[red tooth]] !! [[red claw]] !! both drops
|-
| 1. || 20 || 02 || 00 || 04
|}
 

[[femticore]] (165 XP base)
{| cellpadding="3" cellspacing="0" border="1" align="center" style="text-align:center"
|- style="background-color:#EFEFEF"
! (run ID#) !! nothing !! [[red claw]] !! [[quill blade]] !! both drops
|-
| 1. || 29 || 06 || 04 || 02
|}
 

[[gryphon]] (170 XP base)
{| cellpadding="3" cellspacing="0" border="1" align="center" style="text-align:center"
|- style="background-color:#EFEFEF"
! (run ID#) !! nothing !! [[targe vert with human rampant|targe vert]] !! [[eagle feather]] !! both drops
|-
| 1. || 14 || 02 || 02 || 03
|}
 

[[dimetrodon]] (175 XP base)
{| cellpadding="3" cellspacing="0" border="1" align="center" style="text-align:center"
|- style="background-color:#EFEFEF"
! (run ID#) !! nothing !! [[red tooth]] !! [[trilobit]] !! both drops
|-
| 1. || 16 || 05 || 03 || 01
|}
 

[[flock of harpies]] (175 XP base)
{| cellpadding="3" cellspacing="0" border="1" align="center" style="text-align:center"
|- style="background-color:#EFEFEF"
! (run ID#) !! nothing !! [[eagle feather]]
|-
| 1. || 36 || 13
|}
 

[[catoblepas]] (180 XP base)
{| cellpadding="3" cellspacing="0" border="1" align="center" style="text-align:center"
|- style="background-color:#EFEFEF"
! (run ID#) !! nothing !! [[lump of carmot]]
|-
| 1. || 00 || 27
|}
 

[[Who Are You Calling Vile?|Who You?]] (Non-Combat, 0 XP base)
{| cellpadding="3" cellspacing="0" border="1" align="center" style="text-align:center"
|- style="background-color:#EFEFEF"
! (run ID#) !! nothing !! [[foul spirits]]
|-
| 1. || 00 || 34
|}
 

=== Notes: ===
1. (400 turns, 13:39, 10 July 2008 (MST))
* No targe or sneakiers...
* Mostly level 25-27 [[Psion]] with stats around 106/214/111 using [[Aura: Keen Observation]], [[Metal Detector]], no [[Snout of the Swine]], and [[isotope meter]], [[binoculars]], [[sticky gloves]] (some without isotope meter).

=== Encounter Rate Analysis ===

* All encounters in [[Triassic Park and Bestiary]] look equi-probable, with a '''10% chance of each.'''

=== Item Drop Rate Analysis ===

* [[Who Are You Calling Vile?]] has 100% foul spirits drop.
* [[catoblepas]] has 100% carmot drop.
* [[flock of harpies]] has about 20% eagle feather.
* The other seven encounters might have two drops at 20% each.

At first investigation, the other seven encounters appear to drop a common & uncommon item pair. (Without more spading, it is possible that the two items are equally probable.) To aggressively get more from the data, I assume all seven encounters have the same item drop profile and merge their stats:

{| cellpadding="3" cellspacing="0" border="1" align="center" style="text-align:center"
|- style="background-color:#EFEFEF"
! nothing !! common !! uncommon !! both
|-
|| 122 || 34 || 18 || 13
|}
 

Under those above assumptions:
# Common item drop rate is 47 in 187, or 25.1% drop rate post-buff.
# Uncommon item drop rate is 31 in 187, or 16.6% drop rate post-buff.
# We only expect about 7.8 double-drops (instead of 13), so it is possible that drops are not independent rolls.

(Since that is exactly 1 in 4 and 1 in 6, we might have some concerns that the +% Item modifiers are unimplemented in Triassic Park. But it is probably just coincidence.)

We don't have nearly enough data to significantly separate drop rates of items. If we instead assume that all item drops in Triassic Park are equally probably, we get the following:

{| cellpadding="3" cellspacing="0" border="1" align="center" style="text-align:center"
|- style="background-color:#EFEFEF"
! nothing !! Item A !! Item B !! both drops
|-
|| 122 || 26 avg || 26 avg || 13
|}
 

Under those assumptions:
# Item drop rate is 39 in 187, or 20.9% drop rate post-buff.
# Normally, with two independent 20.9% drops, you'd see about 8.15 instances of both items appearing (instead of 13), so it is possible that drops are not independent rolls.

=== Expected Item Drops ===

Here's my approximation of the drop profile from '''1000 turns''' in '''Triassic Park''':

* 150,000 XP
* 0 [[chips]]

* 100 [[foul spirits]]
* 100 [[lump of carmot]]
* 66 [[red tooth]]
* 66 [[red claw]]
* 50 [[lizard tail]]
* 50 [[eagle feather]]
* 24 [[targe vert with human rampant|targe vert]]
* 21 [[reptile tile]]
* 16 [[trilobit]]
* 15 [[quill blade]]
* 11 [[taut sinew]]

(Based on the following raw data:)

{| cellpadding="2" cellspacing="2" border="1"
! Item Drop !! Encounter !! Odds !! Raw Data
|-
| [[red tooth]] || [[dimetrodon]] || 24.0% || 6 in 25
|-
| [[red tooth]] || [[estemmenosuchus]] || 23.1% || 6 in 26
|-
| [[red tooth]] || [[coelophysis]] || 22.2% || 4 in 18
|-
| [[red claw]] || [[peteinosaurus]] || 28.6% || 8 in 28
|-
| [[red claw]] || [[femticore]] || 19.5% || 8 in 41
|-
| [[red claw]] || [[estemmenosuchus]] || 15.4% || 4 in 26
|-
| [[lizard tail]] || [[upgraded no-frills lizard]] || 35.7% || 10 in 28
|-
| [[lizard tail]] || [[coelophysis]] || 16.7% || 3 in 18
|-
| [[eagle feather]] || [[flock of harpies]] || 26.5% || 13 in 49
|-
| [[eagle feather]] || [[gryphon]] || 23.8% || 5 in 21
|-
| [[targe vert with human rampant|targe vert]] || [[gryphon]] || 23.8% || 5 in 21
|-
| [[reptile tile]] || [[upgraded no-frills lizard]] || 21.4% || 6 in 28
|-
| [[trilobit]] || [[dimetrodon]] || 16.0% || 4 in 25
|-
| [[quill blade]] || [[femticore]] || 14.6% || 6 in 41
|-
| [[taut sinew]] || [[peteinosaurus]] || 10.7% || 3 in 28
|-
|}

User:Tycho Everett/RawData - Revision history

Tycho Everett: New page: = Triassic Park and Bestiary = {| cellpadding="3" cellspacing="0" border="1" align="center" style="text-align:center" |- style="background-color:#EFEFEF" ! (run ID#) !! catoblepas !!...