Talk:Surly gambler
"Your opponent attacks ... "Draw," she says. You go for your weapon, but a professional gambler is always better at the draw. She hits you for 3 damage."
I don't know how to tell the difference between all the types of messages, but this one wasn't on the page. Usi 02:39, 30 March 2008 (MST)
Playing card drop rate
I don't know how to find the probabilities for each playing card, so I'm just going to put my numbers here. Note that each line is exclusively that number (i.e. the "playing card (1)" line means that EXACTLY one playing card dropped).
surly gambler 183 playing card (1) 38 playing card (2) 6 playing card (3) 0
If someone is able to extract the drop rate of each playing card, I'd be grateful. In the meantime, I'm going to collect more data. --hoyifung04 09:29, 23 July 2012 (PDT)
Ohh, nice box :P
Anyway, 44/183=(24% ± 6.3%) => 0.24*0.24*0.76 (chance of 2, assuming independent odds) =~4.37% | observed chance of 2 => 6/183=~3.2%.
Conclusion: Unless you can get that 6 to 60 there's too much chance (±6.3% lol) and little statistic.
Also, if the chance is indeed 24% statistically you ought to have already seen 2 occurrences of 3 cards together, which proves 200 is still a small sample. Patojonas 12:29, 23 July 2012 (PDT)
- Pretty sure you can't actually get 24% that way, but using that value, there would be a 43.9% chance of no cards dropping, a 41.6% chance of exactly 1 dropping, and a 13.1% chance of exactly 2 dropping, and a 1.4% chance of exactly 3 dropping.
- Current rates are 76 ± 6.3% for no cards dropping, 20.8 ± 6% for exactly 1 dropping, 3.3 ± 2.6% for exactly 2 dropping, and 0 ± 0.1% for exactly 3 dropping.
- At, say, a 10% drop rate, there would be a 72.9% chance of exactly 1 dropping, a 24.3% chance of exactly 1 dropping, and a 2.7% chance of exactly 2 dropping, and a 0.1% chance of exactly 3 dropping. This is closer, but still not quite the same as the data. In any case, I agree with one part of your conclusion: 200 is too small a sample.
- Of course, all this is assuming the drop rate for each card is the same. If it isn't, that'll be a lot of "fun".... --hoyifung04 13:19, 23 July 2012 (PDT)
