Talk:Snow day
Checking if drops are effected by item drop bonuses.
100 turns without bonuses: 13 icicle, 12 sleet, 40 snowball (65 drops).
100 turns with bonuses: 29 icicle, 18 sleet, 45 snowball (89 drops).
Conclusion: most definitely yes. --Muhandes 10:58, 17 April 2009 (UTC)
Frayday Message
Anyone remember if the message showed up on the previous Frayday (that is, the one before December 10, 2011, if there was one)? --hoyifung04 21:14, 9 December 2011 (PST)
- Okay, never mind; should have checked the forums first. The answer was yes. --hoyifung04 21:20, 9 December 2011 (PST)
Drop spadings
Here's what I got, after 712 combats, excluding modifier drop messages:
- icicle - 73 -> (19.6% ± 4.1%)
- bucket - 53 -> (14.2% ± 3.6%)
- snowball - 118 -> (31.7% ± 4.8%)
- thundersnow - 128 -> (34.4% ± 4.9%)
Which results in a statistical drop chance of 52.2 ± 3.7%, which I think we can assume as 50%.
Regarding the distribution when it drops, by my data it seems to be 20%, 15%, 30%, 35%, however since this is the first time the thundersnow drops I guess these numbers might fluctuate a bit, comparing these with the next snow day might be bet before jumping to conclusions. Patojonas (talk) 17:26, 21 December 2012 (PST)
Chance of any drop after combat: (51.7% ± 2.3%)
Chance of drop being icicle: (19.1% ± 2.5%)
Chance of drop being sleet bucket: (14.6% ± 2.2%)
Chance of drop being snowball: (35.2% ± 3%)
Chance of drop being thundersnow: (31.1% ± 2.9%)
Looks like our numbers for snowball and thundersnow are reversed! (Or, perhaps the drop rate is 33%.) --hoyifung04 (talk) 20:21, 21 December 2012 (PST)
Your statistic is almost 3 times larger than mine, and while doing mine the numbers for those two changed places a couple times. I'm actually surprised the icicles and buckets are so similar. Anyway, only conclusion I'm willing to take before the next snow day is that the chance of snow items is 50%. Patojonas (talk) 04:14, 22 December 2012 (PST)
November 2013, no thundersnow this time around. Total drop chance observed is (45.1% ± 3.1%).
- icicle - 92-> (19.9% ± 3.7%)
- bucket - 75 -> (16.2% ± 3.4%)
- snowball - 295-> (63.9% ± 4.5%)
Bucket and icicle seem to keep their 15%/20% proportion compared to the previous snow day, snowball taking the remaining 65%, coherent with previous numbers.
I'm not very confident on the total drop numbers since the spading script gave me a number for total combats of 949 (resulting in a 48.7 ± 3.2 chance), but the manual sum of all foes yielded 1025 (I might have screwed up here), so I'll just leave both numbers for future comparison.Patojonas 05:00, 14 November 2013 (PST)
Data for Nov. 23 2013. I messed up a bit and forgot to clear some spading history with the Wandering Villains. Thus, I have excluded all data with them (whether or not they dropped anything).
Total drop rate: (52.7% ± 3.4%)
- icicle: (23.5% ± 4%)
- bucket: (10.7% ± 2.9%)
- snowball: (65.8% ± 4.4%)
I'll add today's data later. --hoyifung04 (talk) 13:47, 7 December 2013 (PST)
Data for Dec 7 2013.
Total drop rate: (51.8% ± 2.7%)
- icicle: (19.8% ± 3%)
- bucket: (12.8% ± 2.5%)
- snowball: (67.4% ± 3.5%)
--hoyifung04 (talk) 10:18, 8 December 2013 (PST)
My data for this day:
Total drop rate: (49.3% ± 4.3%)
- icicle: (22.3% ± 5.1%)
- bucket: (13% ± 4.1%)
- snowball: (64.7% ± 5.8%)
- Day total:
Total drop rate: (51.1% ± 2.3%)
- icicle: (20.4% ± 2.6%)
- bucket: (12.9% ± 2.1%)
- snowball: (66.7% ± 3%)
I guess it is safe to assume 20/13/67 for only 3? Patojonas 13:22, 17 December 2013 (PST)
Data for Jan 1 2014:
Total drop rate: (51.5% ± 2.7%)
- icicle: (17.4% ± 2.8%)
- bucket: (16.2% ± 2.7%)
- snowball: (66.4% ± 3.5%)
--hoyifung04 (talk) 20:40, 2 January 2014 (PST)
Data for Jan 2 2014:
Total drop rate: (55.3% ± 3%)
- icicle: (17.7% ± 3.1%)
- bucket: (14.7% ± 2.8%)
- snowball: (67.6% ± 3.7%)
--hoyifung04 (talk) 20:40, 2 January 2014 (PST)
Data for both Jan 1 and 2 2014:
Total drop rate: (53.1% ± 1.6%)
- icicle: (18.6% ± 1.7%)
- bucket: (15.1% ± 1.6%)
- snowball: (66.4% ± 2.1%)
18/15/67 ? Patojonas 13:59, 3 January 2014 (PST)
Data for Feb 6 2014:
Total drop rate: (52.6% ± 1.3%)
- icicle: (19.2% ± 1.4%)
- bucket: (14.9% ± 1.2%)
- snowball: (65.9% ± 1.7%)
19/15/66 Seems to be the distribution. Largest statistic ever so considering this spaded. Patojonas 15:10, 6 February 2014 (PST)
And more data:
Total drop rate: (55.2% ± 2.7%)
- icicle: (19.3% ± 2.9%)
- bucket: (14.9% ± 2.6%)
- snowball: (65.8% ± 3.4%)
--hoyifung04 (talk) 20:53, 6 February 2014 (PST)
