Talk:Snow day
Checking if drops are effected by item drop bonuses.
100 turns without bonuses: 13 icicle, 12 sleet, 40 snowball (65 drops).
100 turns with bonuses: 29 icicle, 18 sleet, 45 snowball (89 drops).
Conclusion: most definitely yes. --Muhandes 10:58, 17 April 2009 (UTC)
Frayday Message
Anyone remember if the message showed up on the previous Frayday (that is, the one before December 10, 2011, if there was one)? --hoyifung04 21:14, 9 December 2011 (PST)
- Okay, never mind; should have checked the forums first. The answer was yes. --hoyifung04 21:20, 9 December 2011 (PST)
Drop spadings
Here's what I got, after 712 combats, excluding modifier drop messages:
- icicle - 73 -> 19.6 ± 4.1
- bucket - 53 -> 14.2 ± 3.6
- snowball - 118 -> 31.7 ± 4.8
- thundersnow - 128 -> 34.4 ± 4.9
Which results in a statistical drop chance of 52.2 ± 3.7%, which I think we can assume as 50%.
Regarding the distribution when it drops, by my data it seems to be 20%, 15%, 30%, 35%, however since this is the first time the thundersnow drops I guess these numbers might fluctuate a bit, comparing these with the next snow day might be bet before jumping to conclusions. Patojonas (talk) 17:26, 21 December 2012 (PST)
Chance of any drop after combat: (51.7% ± 2.3%)
Chance of drop being icicle: (19.1% ± 2.5%)
Chance of drop being sleet bucket: (14.6% ± 2.2%)
Chance of drop being snowball: (35.2% ± 3%)
Chance of drop being thundersnow: (31.1% ± 2.9%)
Looks like our numbers for snowball and thundersnow are reversed! (Or, perhaps the drop rate is 33%.) --hoyifung04 (talk) 20:21, 21 December 2012 (PST)
Your statistic is almost 3 times larger than mine, and while doing mine the numbers for those two changed places a couple times. I'm actually surprised the icicles and buckets are so similar. Anyway, only conclusion I'm willing to take before the next snow day is that the chance of snow items is 50%. Patojonas (talk) 04:14, 22 December 2012 (PST)
