User:Tycho Everett/RawData

Triassic Park and Bestiary

(run ID#)	catoblepas	flock	coelo	dimetrodon	upgraded	pete	gryphon	femticore	estem	Who You?
1. (400)	35	49	34	39	43	41	39	41	45	34

upgraded no-frills lizard (150 XP base)

(run ID#)	nothing	lizard tail	reptile tile	both drops
1.	13	09	05	01

coelophysis (155 XP base)

(run ID#)	nothing	red tooth	lizard tail	both drops
1.	11	04	03	00

peteinosaurus (160 XP base)

(run ID#)	nothing	red claw	taut sinew	both drops
1.	19	06	01	02

estemmenosuchus (165 XP base)

(run ID#)	nothing	red tooth	red claw	both drops
1.	20	02	00	04

femticore (165 XP base)

(run ID#)	nothing	red claw	quill blade	both drops
1.	29	06	04	02

gryphon (170 XP base)

(run ID#)	nothing	targe vert	eagle feather	both drops
1.	14	02	02	03

dimetrodon (175 XP base)

(run ID#)	nothing	red tooth	trilobit	both drops
1.	16	05	03	01

flock of harpies (175 XP base)

(run ID#)	nothing	eagle feather
1.	36	13

catoblepas (180 XP base)

(run ID#)	nothing	lump of carmot
1.	00	27

Who You? (Non-Combat, 0 XP base)

(run ID#)	nothing	foul spirits
1.	00	34

Notes:

1. (400 turns, 13:39, 10 July 2008 (MST))

• No targe or sneakiers...
• Mostly level 25-27 Psion with stats around 106/214/111 using Aura: Keen Observation, Metal Detector, no Snout of the Swine, and isotope meter, binoculars, sticky gloves (some without isotope meter).

Encounter Rate Analysis

• All encounters in Triassic Park and Bestiary look equi-probable, with a 10% chance of each.

Item Drop Rate Analysis

• Who Are You Calling Vile? has 100% foul spirits drop.
• catoblepas has 100% carmot drop.
• flock of harpies has about 20% eagle feather.
• The other seven encounters might have two drops at 20% each.

At first investigation, the other seven encounters appear to drop a common & uncommon item pair. (Without more spading, it is possible that the two items are equally probable.) To aggressively get more from the data, I assume all seven encounters have the same item drop profile and merge their stats:

nothing	common	uncommon	both
122	34	18	13

Under those above assumptions:

1. Common item drop rate is 47 in 187, or 25.1% drop rate post-buff.
2. Uncommon item drop rate is 31 in 187, or 16.6% drop rate post-buff.
3. We only expect about 7.8 double-drops (instead of 13), so it is possible that drops are not independent rolls.

(Since that is exactly 1 in 4 and 1 in 6, we might have some concerns that the +% Item modifiers are unimplemented in Triassic Park. But it is probably just coincidence.)

We don't have nearly enough data to significantly separate drop rates of items. If we instead assume that all item drops in Triassic Park are equally probably, we get the following:

nothing	Item A	Item B	both drops
122	26 avg	26 avg	13

Under those assumptions:

1. Item drop rate is 39 in 187, or 20.9% drop rate post-buff.
2. Normally, with two independent 20.9% drops, you'd see about 8.15 instances of both items appearing (instead of 13), so it is possible that drops are not independent rolls.

Expected Item Drops

Here's my approximation of the drop profile from 1000 turns in Triassic Park:

• 150,000 XP
• 0 chips

• 100 foul spirits
• 100 lump of carmot
• 66 red tooth
• 66 red claw
• 50 lizard tail
• 50 eagle feather
• 24 targe vert
• 21 reptile tile
• 16 trilobit
• 15 quill blade
• 11 taut sinew

(Based on the following raw data:)

Item Drop	Encounter	Odds	Raw Data
red tooth	dimetrodon	24.0%	6 in 25
red tooth	estemmenosuchus	23.1%	6 in 26
red tooth	coelophysis	22.2%	4 in 18
red claw	peteinosaurus	28.6%	8 in 28
red claw	femticore	19.5%	8 in 41
red claw	estemmenosuchus	15.4%	4 in 26
lizard tail	upgraded no-frills lizard	35.7%	10 in 28
lizard tail	coelophysis	16.7%	3 in 18
eagle feather	flock of harpies	26.5%	13 in 49
eagle feather	gryphon	23.8%	5 in 21
targe vert	gryphon	23.8%	5 in 21
reptile tile	upgraded no-frills lizard	21.4%	6 in 28
trilobit	dimetrodon	16.0%	4 in 25
quill blade	femticore	14.6%	6 in 41
taut sinew	peteinosaurus	10.7%	3 in 28